Hi all, I'm a new poster, recently found your board. I haven't read all the threads yet, so this may have been mentioned already.

I think what Tom figured out was that "Red" is a russian spy who is impersonating Raymond Reddington. Remember Episode 3 of Blacklist Redemption, when Tom went to Russia and they  found that village where they trained impersonators to step into someone's life in the United States. So he was able to quickly put 2 and 2 together when the bones came back as being those of the real Reddington's.  I think the fake/Russian spy Red's handler was Oleander, which is how Mr. Kaplan knew the name, but she did not know Oleander was Dom and Katarina's father. I think Dom is fakeRed's father,which would mean fakeRed is Liz/Masha's uncle as well as impersonating the man who was her biological father. Which would explain the strong connection he feels towards her. There was a hit in Codis because the real Reddington was in CODIS after Cooper did the DNA match for Liz with the real Reddington's DNA (from an old case file).   However, I really like Tuxie's idea that Jennifer's DNA may be in CODIS because of her being in witness protection and it matched that way too.

BTW, this could be what fakeRed whispered to Kirk, his real name and that he is an impersonator, could have even mentioned he was Kate's brother (which Kirk presumably may have met) which is why Kirk let him live.  It could be fakeRed was at the house the night Masha shot the real Red, he may have been there with is sister Katarina to help her get her daughter back. It's possible FakeRed didn't become "Reddington" until after Masha killed realRed;  if his father (Oleander) ran that program he could've trained his son to take realReddington's place.  We do know "reddington" fell off the map for a few years after they found his abandoned car, it could have been when the training/plastic surgery was taking place.  And it may be fakeRed's real daughter who is the ballerina (not Jennifer). Kate would have known realRed died so she'd have to know the fakeRed was a fake, she may have met/known him as Kate's brother before he donned his knew identity. But I'm also wondering if fakeRed started impersonating ReaRed while RealRed was still alive and causing all kinds of havoc for the RealRed who was unsuspecting at the time. FakeRed may have stole the fulcrum pretending to be RealRed, etc.  This could be why the whole thing fell apart, maybe RealRed saw FakeRed with Katarina somehow, compromising Oleander and his program, and freaked out and stole the fulcrum and Masha from Katarina and was trying to come clean to the US who was looking for him due to the actions of FakeRed, which put RealRed's life in danger, meaning he just couldn't come forward with the evidence.  (?)

I haven't come up with a theory yet as to why the real Reddington being dead is so important to Garvey.  Could he work for or be part of the Cabal? Obviously fakeRed doesn't want Liz to find out he's not really her father because they have grown so much closer since she discovered that she was Reddinton's daughter.  I think that's the secret they all want him to tell her though - that he's her uncle, not her father and an impersonator.
 

A small thing, upon rewatch, going back to earlier seasons.

Dom tells Liz that he was a systems analyst working on agricultural topics after he came to the US. Could that put him in Nebraska, given its agricultural character? That would put him close to Sam, who knew Red and Katrina, as mentioned above.

Just trying to string clues together.

Thank you HoneyWest and Tatiana for the welcome! I'm looking forward to particpating more now that I've joined your group. I need to take some time to read all the threads, you have so many pages. I'm sure the fakeRed idea was raised after that episode of Blacklist Redemption, I think Oleander being fakeRed's handler may be new.  Dom may not be fakeRed's father, it could just be their relationship is of handler/spy. I think if fakeRed was Katarina's sister, Dom would have referred to her as  'your sister' not 'my daughter' when they were in the garage looking at her box.   But, they don't have to be father/son -  they would have know each other for years in the handler/spy capacity.

I'm also starting to lean more to fakeRed becoming RealRed while RealRed was still alive.  That explains why Katarina had the affair with RealRed, to get info for her father to use so that fakeRed would be able to step into his life, or to keep him tied up in one place while fakeRed was running around pretending to be him somewhere else, and she never had any romantic feelings for him as it was just another job to her.   I'm thinking RealRed somehow found out about FakeRed and that's why he stole Masha and the fulcrum from Katarina (and Dom and fakeRed), which led to all the disasters Dom now blames fakeRed for. Had FakeRed not let RealRed see him, none of that would have happened, they would have kept the fulcrum, Masha wouldn't have been kidnapped, she wouldn't have killed RealRed and Katarina wouldn't have gotten into so much trouble that she had to kill herself or go so deep undercover no one saw her again.  It also may have led to fakeRed's real family being massacred. So FakeRed has a lot of guilt he's carrying around.  That guilt may have made him feel responsible for Liz all those years, (him also being her biological uncle would really amplify those feelings, but it's not necessary).

I definitely am not in the Redarina camp! It's a fun theory but I do not believe Red is Katarina and, btw, I also do not think Kate was a spy/plant.  I think she was just very good at her job.  Look how fast Liz picked up Kate's skills, I'm sure Kate was a quick study in her time too. 

I think this is ultimately going to end up being a (very good) spy story!

Speaking of Dom. He told Liz: "I never heard from Katarina after she left for America.".  He also said he saw Masha with Katarina when she was three. That would imply it was in Russia. I thought Masha was in the USA and Canada when she was three. Kate was her nanny in the USA while she was a baby.  Did she spend time in Russia as well?  And that also meant that when Dom said he knew Reddington it was while he was in Russia, as Dom said he came to the US after the Cold War (the early 1990's) and by then Reddington was an underground international thief. What would a lowly analyst know of an international thief?  Why didn't Liz pick up on any of these inconsistencies?  Not earthshattering important, but you'd think she would have asked about this.
 

Hi Kathy N - Welcome! One of my earliest theories at the end of Season 2, when we saw all the Russian items in Bethesda flat, was that Red was a Russian sleeper agent. I think there are some clues that would support that plot. My feeling when I first viewed The Artax Network was that Dom and Red had worked closely together at one point.

I'm not at all tied to the Redarina theory. But it does solve some of the discrepancies and plot holes in the series. I hadn't thought about it in a long time. But it started rattling around again in my head yesterday after I rewatched The Invisible Hand. If I had my way, Red would be the real Raymond Reddington and Liz's father. There would be no imposters at all. But unfortunately, I'm not writing the show.

Tuxie400 wrote:

Tatiana - I have missed you and your insights! As of today, I'm thinking those bones are the real Raymond Reddington. My new theory is the U.S. Marshals entered Jennifer Reddington's DNA in CODIS when she disappeared from Witsec circa 2007, and Garvey has been monitoring that for years because he wanted to catch Raymond Reddington. But of course it should have also matched Liz's DNA, so I don't know why Garvey acted like he didn't know who Liz was. 

Hi Tuxie400 - I really like this idea.  I think there definitely is a link with Garvey being a US Marshall, and the Marshalls having jurisdiction over the witness protection program.  I think that will come out as part of it in some way.  And it would make sense, that as a US Marshall involved in witness protection, that he would have been contacted and known that someone ran a CODIS search that linked it to Jennifer Reddington.

Of course this plays into two of my theories - that Red is an imposter, and that he was never married to Carla, therefore, Jennifer is not his daughter.  

If the bones are the real RR, and the CODIS search linked the bones to the Jennifer Reddington DNA (and importantly, this would not have to depend on Red's DNA being in the system), that is going to set alarm bells ringing.

anyway just some thoughts.....

Tatiana wrote:

......
Actually, in the fire memory sequence, someone had posted screen shots of 'Katarina' in front of the open window. I often thought it didn't look just right. She is dressed in a long coat and what appears to be army boots with crossed shoe laces up the length of the shin. If you look at the face closely, it doesn't look altogether female. In fact, it has a rather prominent and roundish chin, much like Spader's. I don't have the capacity to do it, but it would be interesting to do a transposition of Spader's face over that screen shot. 
(I thought I still had it, but I can't find it now).

 

Tatiana, thanks for mentioning that!  Yes, I also thought at the time that was a bit strange but hadn't got further with it.  The "woman" is definitely wearing things that look like  "men's" clothes...and like heavy army boots.  At the time I just put it down to her having to dress like that at times in her role as an operative....but who knows?

EDITED to ADD:  of course, the incongruity could have just been hinting at, or part of, Liz's memories being really messed up.  There's no particular reason she would see "the woman" as Red but if her head is mixing everything up....but again who knows....LOL
 

Last edited by lara1 (2/10/2018 7:12 pm)

KathyN wrote:

Speaking of Dom. He told Liz: "I never heard from Katarina after she left for America.". He also said he saw Masha with Katarina when she was three. That would imply it was in Russia. I thought Masha was in the USA and Canada when she was three. Kate was her nanny in the USA while she was a baby. Did she spend time in Russia as well? And that also meant that when Dom said he knew Reddington it was while he was in Russia, as Dom said he came to the US after the Cold War (the early 1990's) and by then Reddington was an underground international thief. What would a lowly analyst know of an international thief? Why didn't Liz pick up on any of these inconsistencies? Not earthshattering important, but you'd think she would have asked about this.
 

Welcome KathyN!  enjoyed reading your posts.

I am a bit mystified about that Liz reference to being 3 and in Russia.  We have been told she was born there, but we have seen that as an infant she was with KR and Kate in Cape Breton.  I don't know if he just threw that line in there.  I didn't understand it.

I immediately thought Dom made an Oops  when he mentioned knowing Red.  That will be a big red flag (no pun intended LOL), once Liz thinks that through.  Because how does a low level agrarian analyst in Moscow cross paths with Red, esp after the Cold War when Red was 1) in hiding and 2) then one of America's most wanted.  

Like I've said, I feel like I know even less and am more confused, LOL
 

Last edited by lara1 (2/10/2018 7:01 pm)

I've been thinking some more about what Dembe and Dom are urging Red to tell Liz.  Neither of them really says it would not be painful for her.  They seem to either say, or imply, that she deserves to know.  Because it has to do with her and who she is.  Not necessarily an easy thing to tell her.  Which may explain why Red can't bring himself to do it.

Also - Tom may not have necessarily figured out "everything" = he may have thought he did, based on what he knew, but what if he was missing an important twist - Red seemed to think Tom came to only a partial conclusion....may have jumped the gun like Liz has done in the past.  Given all of the mystery around the bones, I think more and more than Tom figured out a part of it, maybe an important part of it, but he did not have the available information to figure out, or to know, all of it.  Just my two cents!!!!

Tatiana wrote:

Honey West - that is a very logical break down and it makes me swing back into the Red is Katarina camp. The question that comes up is, who, then is in the suitcase?

We know that gender reassignment surgery was far more effective in the 1990s and in fact had passed the experimental stages in the 60s and 70s so it's more than plausible. 

Actually, in the fire memory sequence, someone had posted screen shots of 'Katarina' in front of the open window. I often thought it didn't look just right. She is dressed in a long coat and what appears to be army boots with crossed shoe laces up the length of the shin. If you look at the face closely, it doesn't look altogether female. In fact, it has a rather prominent and roundish chin, much like Spader's. I don't have the capacity to do it, but it would be interesting to do a transposition of Spader's face over that screen shot. 
(I thought I still had it, but I can't find it now). 

I just posted the screen shot Tatiana mentioned on my tumblr, if anyone wants to look at it again:
https://irondestinypolice.tumblr.com/