The Blacklist Refugees » Who is trying to take down Red?

Honey West · 3/08/2017 2:05 am

Nice compilation of what we know and/or think we know. This will be good for reference.
I'm personally inclined to think that The Cabal is also not willing to go gentle into that good night.
And an important thing is that who or whatever is doing this seems to find it important to not just kill Red, but to obliterate his organization. Yet they have, so far, left Liz and Agnes alone.

Tuxie400 · 3/08/2017 9:12 am

Laura - This is an excellent analysis of what would have to be known to be the person responsible for the atttacks and the poisoning! And because so much would be required, that's why I started thinking it would take a whole group of people to pull it off. Or that Red may have done his own poisoning separately from the attacks.

Dembe seems like the one with the most information. And I'm not sure the person who hired Isabella Stone knew about Natalie Luca. Couldn't Isabella Stone have known about Whitehall herself through some means we don't know? Perhaps her sidekick, Charles Murphy, the former NCIS agent knew about Whitehall. Or maybe her husband had been its accountant. I agree that someone would have to tell her about Smoll, Red's courier, and Stratos. But I think she decided the means of murdering and staining the reputations.

Red didn't give the task force Natalie Luca as a blacklister. Cooper refused to investigate Smoll's death - until Aram told them the CD had flagged it as something much worse than meningitis. Aram was also the person who identified Natalie Luca as the suspect. Red did give the task force Isabella's Stone's name, which he got from Natalie Luca. Red also staggered into the Post Office with the idea that the Apothecary was behind his poisoning.

I was watching parts of the Season 2 finale yesterday. Remember how shocked everyone was when Liz killed the attorney general? No one could have predicted that, or would ever think Liz would murder someone that way. It was out of character for her. Maybe this attack seems out of character for one of the "good" characters we love, but when all is revealed will make some kind of sense.

I think Red's statement about the echo of the past is a clue.

Last edited by Tuxie400 (3/08/2017 7:42 pm)

Honey West · 3/08/2017 10:56 am

Good stuff, my fellow Refugees, good stuff!

Tuxie400 · 3/08/2017 12:11 pm

Honey West - The Cabal, headed by Laurel Hitchins, is still a strong suspect. Red would love to have her head in box, and I think she knows it. She's got to have some storyline in the back third of the series since she's made appearances this season and was recently referenced. Who do you think had those Hitchins files sent up for Ressler? He didn't order them. I'm thinking that was Aram's doing. (A lot of roads do lead back to Aram!)

lara1 - Speaking of surveillance, I'm not sure we ever found out who Apple Man in Season 1 was working for. All the task force members were being surveilled way back then. I assumed it was Fitch's people. But it could have been another Cabal member or even Katarina.

Last edited by Tuxie400 (3/08/2017 7:43 pm)

lara1 · 3/08/2017 12:59 pm

Tuxie400 #82. Thanks for the reminder on Isabella Stone. She could have known about Natalie Luca herself. But how I guess is the question! One of many!!

Someone gave Stone a detailed dossier on Red's operations. Which points again to surveillance. Whoever wants Red found a willing participant in Stone who was only happy to take revenge by participating. So, again, someone with an intimate knowledge of Red's past as well as an ability to surveill him in the present. I think for me that rules out Kaplan and Dembe. They would probably have known Red didn't kill Stone's husband. Or, Dembe wasn't even with Red back then. Remember he 's been doing other things in the past.

Anyway in conclusion (for now!) it's a person or persons who know/s Red's past, can surveill his operations now, but is not close enough to him perhaps to know that he hadn't killed Stone's husband. Or knew, but also knew that Isabella didn't know. Hope that makes sense, lol!!

All IMO, of course!!

Last edited by lara1 (3/08/2017 1:01 pm)

Patter · 3/08/2017 1:36 pm

HW #85 "but is not close enough to him perhaps to know that he hadn't killed Stone's husband. Or knew, but also knew that Isabella didn't know. Hope that makes sense, lol!!"

That line reminds me of when Pheobe and Rachel found out about Monica and Chandler..."But they don't know that we know they know we know."

Tuxie400 · 3/08/2017 3:00 pm

lara1 wrote:
Someone gave Stone a detailed dossier on Red's operations. Which points again to surveillance. Whoever wants Red found a willing participant in Stone who was only happy to take revenge by participating. So, again, someone with an intimate knowledge of Red's past as well as an ability to surveill him in the present. I think for me that rules out Kaplan and Dembe. They would probably have known Red didn't kill Stone's husband. Or, Dembe wasn't even with Red back then. Remember he 's been doing other things in the past.

Anyway in conclusion (for now!) it's a person or persons who know/s Red's past, can surveill his operations now, but is not close enough to him perhaps to know that he hadn't killed Stone's husband. Or knew, but also knew that Isabella didn't know. Hope that makes sense, lol!!

I don't think Dembe, Kaplan or anyone else can be 100 percent be ruled out. Dembe wouldn't need suveillance - he's with Red all the time and knows what he's up to. If Red has heard of Isabella Stone, Dembe probably has too. Even Red didn't know her real identity though. Kaplan, working by herself, might know everything except the plans for the Whistler cruiseline.

I do think someone is surveilling Red. Remember when he met with Baldur? There were two camera shots from outside the window that seemed to be watching Red.

I'm going to offer up two suspects we haven't considered.

Emma Knightley - Although she was starstruck, she also thought Red would kill her if she tried to walk away. She's an MI6 spy and likely knows something about surveillance and stealthy activity. She'd been with Red eight years, and may possibly have known about his medical history, the shipping operations, the accountant and the courier. She may have heard about Isabella Stone and hired her with or without knowing Red's connection to Stone's husband. She was willing to double-cross Red and the Harem. Was she brazen enough to start the attacks on Red? Some fans believe she is Jennifer Reddiington. (Although right age and look, I don't because having her be British makes no sense to me.) The attack on the accountant and the tanking of the Whistler cruiseline deal began in her episode, the Harem. I find it curious that "whistle blowing" can be heard right before and after Red's final conversation with Emma. Could she have started the attacks and had no way to call them off?

Tom Keen - Tom Keen at one time would do anything to get his wife and daughter away from Red. Wasn't he brought to Red's flat when Red told him he would not marry Liz back in Season 3B? He knows about Red's lung damage because of the shooting. He knows a thing or two about surveillance too, and he was learning as much as he could about Reddington back when he was working for Berlin. Tom was in Dembe's vehicle when they worked together to help Red in Dr. Adrian Shaw conclusion. Could he have bugged that vehicle? Also, when he visited Red recently to ask about his parents was that in the flat? Could he have poisoned the Scotch then? This could be the thing that shows Liz that Red was right about Tom Keen and splits them up for good.

Last edited by Tuxie400 (3/08/2017 7:23 pm)

Honey West · 3/08/2017 4:09 pm

Such good musings Tuxie400 and lara1. Also loved the Friends reference, patter!

I was thinking we could rule out Kate as being directly and solely responsible due the attacks stepping up after she went MIA. She probably didn't know about the cruise line, unless that was long planned. But I think it more likely that Red seizes opportunities when they present. And right away.

I still think it goes back to someone like the Cabal or the government, or several governments. Unless it's the most obvious suspect of all, and the reason they haven't attacked Liz or Agnes - Liz herself. But I'd be more inclined to believe it was Tom, acting on her behalf. They all know that as long as Red lives and is active in his criminal enterprise, they can never be safe. He has to be either eliminated or severely incapacitated to make his threat go away. Would putting him in prison be enough? It might if his organization is neutralized and he has nothing to draw on, no resources at his disposal. They would need help, inside help. Would the recently disgruntled Dembe be pursuaded to help them? Maybe if they convinced him it was to ultimately save Red without killing him.

I don't know. But you all made me think along those lines, so the group does it again with bouncing ideas around. (grin)

Edited to add - and it might be enough to make Red tell Liz the truth to stop her.

Last edited by Honey West (3/08/2017 4:12 pm)

Tuxie400 · 3/08/2017 5:52 pm

As far as surveillance goes, I believe Red was being surveilled by The Thrushes as far back as the Miles McGrath episode. When Red is on the pay phone to Kirk, with the Marx vs. Lord poster in the background, Red wonders how Kirk knew he would be at that location, when he didn't even know a half hour before, and Kirk just tells him he's the better man. We know Elise was part of The Thrushes and she had direct contact with Odette. This season seems to be all about birds and fish. If Elise is the bird, is Odette the fish? She dived into the water, but the FBI never reported her dead. We've had two episodes with drownings, and we assumed Odette had drowned. Could Odette be working with The Thrushes, trying to take over Red's organization? She's ruthless and doesn't care how much collateral damage she inflicts. But she hates Liz, so, if it were her, I'm surprised she hasn't targeted Liz and Agnes. Maybe that's coming.

lara1 · 3/08/2017 5:57 pm

Patter #86 - LOL, yes its a bit like that! haha.

Tuxie400 #87 - good thoughts. Well, I suppose it could also be that whoever hired Isabella Stone didn't necessarily do so because that person/persons knew of her history with Red, but maybe just for her skills as a reputation assassin. I do tend to think Stone was picked because of that connection with Red though - she could put her own "evil spin" on how she decided to attack Red. But we don't know for sure. I got the sense that Red did recognize her once he saw her, but that's just my own perception. But yes, I agree that he did not know who she was beforehand.

I don't think Tom was ever in the flat, but I could be wrong. I remember the "no marry" discussion with Red and Tom, I think that was at another house. And the discussion with Tom and Red about Tom's parents I think took place in Red's workshop. It could be Tom, but isn't he supposed to be set up to only do good things now? But, yes, I agree some of the other "ingredients" are there! They have kind of set up Liz to be on the outs with Red so I suppose she could be a suspect too, but the way she was very eager to get to Red to tell him about the poison might have been because she did not want him to re=poison himself, - maybe?

Emma is an interesting choice. I don't think she is Jennifer, for much the same reason you stated. It was pretty clear that Jennifer and Naomi went to Philadelphia. The only possible variation I could think of is that Jennifer was sent abroad to boarding school, but that is a real stretch and I don't think that happened with her under witness protection. I think that when Jennifer comes back, it will be with a storyline in the forefront, and we will know it. Back to Emma, not sure if she is behind the plot against Red though, it seemed to me she just wanted to be away and out of it all, which is what Red gave her. Plus, since Red has now sent Emma away to Vermont, I think, and I'm just not convinced that she will be back anytime soon. But she can't be ruled out, that's for sure! Red has no shortage of people unhappy with him!

So basically, no one is above suspicion now! LOL But I tend to think its a new big bad, as we haven't yet had a major blacklister introduced this season - Kirk arrived last season and his arc for now at least ended with the fall finale. This to me is another parallel with Season 1, where Red was under attack, he could not figure it out and did not know who it was, and we did not either. Which brings me right back to Jennifer, working with someone else. She would then have means and motive. Someone coming to haunt Red from his past. Well that's my thought for now!

Last edited by lara1 (3/08/2017 6:00 pm)

lara1 · 3/08/2017 6:05 pm

Tiuxie400 #89 - thanks for reminding us of that! True, someone was watching Red, and was therefore able to set him up with the car bomb in Geneva which killed several of his men. And then Red went "analog".

Odette is interesting, I once thought she could be Jennifer (LOL Jennifer is everywhere!) but I think Red would have recognized her. But then again what if he did but did not say anything? He did give her a mean look at one point. But that's probably too far a stretch. I can't help thinking though that Odette is connected to Red's back story in some way we have not been told. But who knows, really.

lara1 · 3/08/2017 6:13 pm

Tuxie400 - just thought of something else with Odette. In many versions of the Swan Lake ballet, it ends with Odette throwing herself off a cliff to the rocks and water below, killing herself. That's certainly the version that I have always seen. She is followed by the Prince, distraught at her death. So that reminds me of Odette leaping to the dock. Maybe she was just acting like her namesake in the ballet, maybe there is a closer connection. hmmmm Might be worth going back over her dialog in the script again. It's kind of like we don't know whether Kirk and Odette are really fully out of the picture!

Not saying Odette is behind the plot but then again....

Last edited by lara1 (3/08/2017 6:14 pm)

Tuxie400 · 3/08/2017 7:38 pm

lara1 - That's interesting about Odette going out the same way her namesake does in the Swan Lake ballet. My line of thinking today was who could have done it that we haven't thought of yet. I've been trying to think out of the box this week, using the clues we have on hand.

I don't really think we've come up with any one suspect who could have accomplished all of it alone. I feel like all this hype that someone close to Red is after him is kind of like the repeated mole in the post office stories that have it end up NOT being anyone in the Post Office.

Venting Blacklist on Tumblr posted this thought today:

"Baldur and Smoll
Panetti and Helen Dahle
Things thought to be connected, but were not. I wonder if the same is true for the attacks on his business and the poisoning."
I thought that was a good observation and more food for thought.

Last edited by Tuxie400 (3/08/2017 7:40 pm)

lara1 · 3/08/2017 8:06 pm

Tuxie400 - interesting connections! thanks for sharing I think there are things to say the poisoning is separate from the attacks on Red's organization and reputation. Red could have hatched the plan and now doesn't remember doing that! It would, in some ways, be the "easiest" explanation of the statement that "Dembe poisoned Red." And it would explain why the Apothecary had no medical history for Red. He wouldn't have needed it if Red told him how or what to prepare. But what about the race to find the "unknown" antidote....well, if the doctor was in on it, he would of course have had it all along....

Something odd that I thought and noted when the episode aired was that Dembe poured the Scotch. We have always seen Red pouring his own Scotch - whether in a flat, on his plane, etc. So that was off. And now that many of us don't think it could have been Dembe for real, I think the options are that Dembe was not aware the Scotch was poisoned, or it was a plan by Red. But I go back to the close up of the pouring - we have never seen anyone other than Red pour anything - Scotch, wine, whatever....hmmm

So back to the possible plan with Red and Dembe, I'm not sure it worked. I don't think any of the "11" are the ones attacking him. They did have access to the account. But did they all know about the cruise line deal. And what motive...

Questions, questions! Personally, I hope we are all very surprised, but then upon looking back, say, ah, that's what such and such meant! ha.

lara1 · 3/08/2017 8:48 pm

I just rewatched the first half of 4.15 and picked up some more small observations:

1. I'm pretty certain Red did not get the inhaler from the doctor. The doctor gives Red the bottle of pills and explains them while Red is still in the hospital bed. Then as HW I think pointed out, Red has that bottle in his hand and shakes that bottle when he leaves the ICU. I did not see any inhaler in his hand.

2. So the first time we see the inhaler is when Red is at the desk in his flat. I could not see clearly (as every time I paused the TV, the banner at the bottom blocked it out), but it looked like there were also two prescription bottles on the desk - what looks like the top caps are visible. Anyone else see this? which again might point to the cat allergy theory.

3. When Red is sat at the table with LouLou in the house, asking her questions about the night before, the bottle of pills from the doctor is on the table in front of Red. No inhaler. So other than in the flat, the only time Red gets/has an inhaler is after breaking into the pharmacy.

4. Did anyone notice the banana on the floor with the oranges and Red's hat? And when Red is talking to LouLou sitting at the same table in the house, there are 2 other bananas on the table in front of LouLou. When she makes a run for the front door, the bananas are knocked to the floor. hmmmm

5. There are three art works on the wall of the house that have broad stripes on the bottom of each reminiscent of the American flag. Shown right before the oranges and banana on the floor scene.

hmmmm

Last edited by lara1 (3/08/2017 8:51 pm)

lara1 · 3/08/2017 8:58 pm

Oh, to add to the above possible cat allergy signs....what if that photo on Aram's computer of the cat with the Chinese takeout box on its head was just connecting Red/the cat and possible allergy w/ the poisoning plot?

One other thing (says Columbo, LOL!):

Why is there a police notice on Marvin's front door? It says the premises are under the control of the Montgomery County administrator pending court action. Not sure what that is all about....unusual.

Last edited by lara1 (3/08/2017 8:58 pm)

Tuxie400 · 3/08/2017 9:41 pm

lara1 -
Bananas! Did someone say banana! All roads lead back to Aram! And his fruit basket. Hmmm..

Aram has that funny cat pic with the Chinese takeout and a cat starts the episode. What is Red's cat trying to tell us? Maybe curiousity killed the cat, meaning be cautious when investigating situations. Or maybe Red's playing a game of cat and mouse, a game of strategy or stealth. Or was Red planning to "see which way the cat jumps" to see what happens with his plan.

I think you're right that he had the inhaler in the flat. The flat with the Chershire cat. Maybe the cat fur will end up identifying the culprit.

I didn't notice the police notice on Marvin's door at all. Curiouser and curiouser.

It may be a new big bad. But I think it has to be a female big bad because of all the female blacklisters we've had this season.

Last edited by Tuxie400 (3/08/2017 11:58 pm)

lara1 · 3/08/2017 9:51 pm

oh just a thought on the police notice. I remembered LouLou said she called the police. Maybe that's why. I didn't see any police tape, and the door seemed to be opened, not secured, though.

The notice also said persons are not supposed to enter the premises. Maybe no police tape as there was no firm evidence that a crime had been committed. Still odd though. maybe its to signal to the audience that LouLou was on the level, and telling the truth to Red.

Tuxie400 · 3/08/2017 9:52 pm

And you are right that we have never seen Dembe pour Red a drink before. That doesn't mean it would never happen though. We've never seen the cat looking so pampered and relaxed either.

Honey West · 3/08/2017 10:13 pm

lara1 wrote:
I just rewatched the first half of 4.15 and picked up some more small observations:

1. I'm pretty certain Red did not get the inhaler from the doctor. The doctor gives Red the bottle of pills and explains them while Red is still in the hospital bed. Then as HW I think pointed out, Red has that bottle in his hand and shakes that bottle when he leaves the ICU. I did not see any inhaler in his hand.

2. So the first time we see the inhaler is when Red is at the desk in his flat. I could not see clearly (as every time I paused the TV, the banner at the bottom blocked it out), but it looked like there were also two prescription bottles on the desk - what looks like the top caps are visible. Anyone else see this? which again might point to the cat allergy theory.

3. When Red is sat at the table with LouLou in the house, asking her questions about the night before, the bottle of pills from the doctor is on the table in front of Red. No inhaler. So other than in the flat, the only time Red gets/has an inhaler is after breaking into the pharmacy.

4. Did anyone notice the banana on the floor with the oranges and Red's hat? And when Red is talking to LouLou sitting at the same table in the house, there are 2 other bananas on the table in front of LouLou. When she makes a run for the front door, the bananas are knocked to the floor. hmmmm

5. There are three art works on the wall of the house that have broad stripes on the bottom of each reminiscent of the American flag. Shown right before the oranges and banana on the floor scene.

hmmmm

When I freeze-framed Red taking the pill bottle as he left I could swear that I saw the inhaler in his hand, too. He had more than the bottle and I thought I saw the top of the inhaler. It's quick and so, it's pretty motion-blurred. Then Red had it in his flat and the next time was I think after he parked the car.

Yes, I saw the bananas. I just assumed that there must have been a bowl or basket of fruit on the table and that Red knocked it over when he must have collapsed there which caused Dembe to call *77 and get the ball rolling to get Red some help. The door was ajar when Red went back there, which is not surprising considering the emergency earlier.